Austin Housing Market Update: What the Data Is Really Saying as January 2026 Unfolds
If you’ve been following the Austin housing market, you’ve probably noticed a shift. The urgency of past years has cooled, listings are sitting longer, and negotiations are no longer the exception—they’re the norm. The data from January 2026 confirms this isn’t a temporary pause, but a market settling into a more balanced rhythm.
Below is a data-driven breakdown of where the Austin real estate market stands today, what’s changing, and what it means as we move deeper into the year.
Inventory Is Growing and Absorption Is Slowing
Across the Austin-Area MLS, active residential listings now total 12,767, up 10.9% year over year. Inventory has continued to build as new listings are entering the market faster than homes are being absorbed through sales. This has pushed Months of Inventory to 4.54, up from 3.98 last year, representing a 14.1% increase.
This shift places the market firmly above last year’s balance point and signals a slower absorption environment. Buyers are taking more time, and sellers are facing more competition than they did at this point last year.
Inside the City of Austin real estate market, inventory trends are more restrained but no longer tightening. Active listings dipped slightly from 3,317 last year to 3,261 today, down 1.7% year over year. Despite that, Months of Inventory increased from 4.36 to 4.49, indicating homes are taking longer to sell due to reduced sales velocity rather than true scarcity.
Pricing Stability Across the Austin-Area MLS
Pricing across the broader Austin-Area MLS continues to show a clear split between average and median numbers. The average active list price increased 3.7% year over year, rising from $550,050 to $570,589. This reflects continued support at higher price points and newer, replacement-cost inventory.
Meanwhile, the median active list price remained essentially flat, moving from $419,900 to $419,990. That lack of movement suggests limited pricing power in the middle of the market, where most buyers and sellers are active.
On the sales side, the average sold price increased 3.1% year over year, while the median sold price declined slightly by 0.5%. This divergence shows how higher-priced transactions are still supporting averages, even as typical closings face mild downward pressure. You can see this trend reflected more clearly when looking at Austin home price trends over time.
Pricing Trends Inside the City of Austin
Within the City of Austin, pricing adjustments are more visible. The average active list price rose 2.1% year over year to $779,870, while the median active list price declined 3.9%, dropping from $575,000 to $552,500.
That widening gap highlights how pricing strength remains concentrated in higher-end inventory. Mid-range homes are still working through price discovery as buyers remain cautious.
Closed sales show the same pattern. The average sold price increased modestly by 1.8%, but the median sold price declined 4.5% year over year. Median pricing within the city has continued to drift lower week over week, signaling that adjustments are still underway, particularly for homes priced near the center of the market.
Negotiation Is the Defining Feature of Today’s Market
Negotiation continues to dominate the Austin housing market. So far this month, 71.26% of homes sold below list price, while 18.65% sold at list price. Only 10.09% of homes sold above list price, down from both last month and January 2025 levels.
The average sold-to-list price ratio currently sits at 96.63%, confirming that price concessions remain common across most segments. For buyers, this environment creates opportunities that haven’t existed in years. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of realistic pricing and strategy when selling a home in Austin.
Regional and ZIP Code-Level Differences Matter
Market performance across Central Texas remains uneven. Of the 30 cities tracked, only six recorded month-over-month price increases, while 24 experienced declines. The same split holds year over year, and no city is currently trading above its peak prices from the past 12 months.
At the neighborhood level, dispersion is even more pronounced. Among the 75 ZIP codes tracked, 33 posted month-over-month price increases, while 41 declined. Year over year, 27 ZIP codes recorded gains and 48 declined. All tracked ZIP codes remain below their prior peak prices, reinforcing how widespread the price reset has been. A closer look at Austin ZIP code market data often reveals very different conditions just a few miles apart.
Prices Remain Well Below Prior Highs
Despite recent stabilization, prices across the Austin-Area MLS remain meaningfully below previous peaks. The average list price is down approximately 12.2% from its March 2023 high, while the median list price is down about 22.2% from its May 2022 peak.
The average sold price is roughly 18.6% below peak levels, and the median sold price is down approximately 25.7%. On a price-per-square-foot basis, both average and median sold values remain about 25% to 28% below their 2022 highs.
Within the City of Austin, the pattern is similar. Median sold prices are down about 20.3% from peak, and price-per-square-foot metrics remain 22% to 27% below prior highs. These figures continue to shape expectations around how to price a home in Austin in today’s market.
Austin Housing Market Outlook for January 2026
As January 2026 progresses, the Austin housing market remains slower and more measured. Inventory levels are higher than last year, Months of Inventory has expanded, and most homes are still selling below list price. Average prices remain supported by higher-end transactions, while median prices—especially within the City of Austin—continue to face pressure.
This is no longer a market driven by speed or emotion. It’s defined by balance, negotiation, and price sensitivity. For those watching closely, understanding the data—not headlines—remains the key to navigating what comes next. For ongoing insights, you can explore monthly Austin market updates to track how these trends evolve.
