Austin buyers and sellers continue to navigate a market heavy on supply and light on urgency, making pricing strategy and timing more critical than ever.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Thursday, November 20, 2025.
The Austin housing market on Thursday, November 20, 2025, reflects a transition period marked by increased inventory, moderate buyer engagement, and clearer evidence of downward price pressure. With 15,348 active residential listings, inventory remains 14.4% higher than this time last year, and 58.2% of homes currently on the market have experienced at least one price reduction. That’s not just a sign of sellers adjusting late, it confirms what the absorption numbers have already been signaling: demand has not caught up to supply, and prices continue to react.
From a macro perspective, this is one of the most data-rich indicators of a softening market we’ve seen in recent months. The Activity Index sits at 20.5%, down 10% from last year, which places resale activity firmly inside the slowing segment of the Austin market phase model. Only 3% of cities are in equilibrium, while 53% sit in the contraction zone and 33% have already entered freeze conditions, where buyer activity slows enough that price adjustments accelerate. For real estate agents, this means pricing at market is no longer sufficient. It requires anticipating the next step down and positioning ahead of competitors still holding out for peak-era values.
Austin real estate now has 5.46 months of inventory (15% higher than November 2024), placing it well into buyer advantage conditions for resale. Historically, a balanced market averages around five months, but today's elevated levels coupled with low absorption imply the market is not stabilizing but slowly losing speed. In YTD analysis, inventory is up 15.5%, compared with only a 3.6% decline in pending contracts. That imbalance doesn’t mean demand is collapsing, but rather that listings are outpacing buyers at a rate that is unlikely to reverse until affordability improves or sellers adjust faster.
Affordability remains the central pressure point. The median sold price today is $450,000, down from the May 2022 peak of $550,000, representing an 18.18% drop, or $100,000 in real value. For average sales, prices have fallen 12.51%, from $681,939 to $596,633. Compared to 36 months ago, median price performance remains slightly below trend, currently tracking at negative 2.17%. This is notable because even with slight improvement in early 2025, recent stagnation has confirmed that prior compressions in buyer behavior were not temporary, but structural.
Looking forward, using Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.981%, projections indicate it would take roughly 53 months (March 2030) for prices to return to the previous peak. That assumes today represents the bottom. If interest rates remain elevated and inventory continues building, agents should prepare for a longer recovery window, especially in high-supply segments such as suburban resale inventory above $600,000.
Austin housing forecast conditions also show further stress in turnover velocity. The absorption rate (sold to active ratio) is only 16.61%, barely half of the historical average of 31.70%. A market moving at that pace typically results in increased time on market, deeper negotiations, and a buyer pool that grows more selective. Market Flow Score, which captures overall transactional efficiency, sits at 4.76 on a 10-point scale, well under the long-term average of 6.59. High-performing markets recover momentum quickly after seasonal slowdowns. Austin’s market is not showing signs of acceleration yet.
Interestingly, new construction continues to outperform resale sector demand. The Activity Index records 27.43% for new builds versus only 17.45% for resale. Builders that structure incentives aggressively are capturing demand more efficiently than traditional listings. Agents representing resale sellers must account for this competition. Price alignment and front-loaded value packaging matter more today than list exposure duration.
Across listing velocity, monthly new listing to pending ratio has reset to 0.80, below the long-term average of 0.82 but notably above last spring’s ratio. The YTD ratio sits at 0.72, signaling that for every 100 new listings, only 72 are going under contract. When compared with periods of expansion, which consistently trend above 1.0, this confirms we are still in a supply-heavy environment relative to buyer throughput.
For context, cumulative new listings YTD are at 47,084, up 3.7% from last year and 21.3% above average. Pending contracts, however, are at 39,967, down 3.6% from 2024. This creates a gap of 7,117 surplus listings, marking the sixth consecutive month inventory growth has outpaced demand. While not a crisis moment, it demonstrates how prolonged tightening fails to materialize until pricing fully reflects current affordability limits.
Even with this pressure, certain segments remain resilient. High-performing zip codes inside Austin’s central zones still reflect moderate absorption relative to outlying areas but represent less than 10% of total listings. Peripheral cities such as Manor, Bastrop, Elgin, and Liberty Hill continue to absorb inventory slowly, with months of supply exceeding six and heading toward extended buyer control. In some rural overlapping zones, months of inventory has reached as high as 18 to 19.
From a strategic perspective, decisions in today’s market must align with these shifts:
Buyers should expect better negotiation leverage but need clear evaluation on how long-term price depreciation risks balance against current financing constraints. The relative stability of top-quartile pricing year over year (6.56% increase) indicates value is holding best when supply is constrained, especially in prime neighborhoods.
Sellers must understand that holding price is not a bias-resistant strategy. The market is signaling that velocity is gained through alignment, not inflation. With more than half of all listings already reducing price, the market is redefining fair market value at every price point.
Investors should see opportunity where cap rate and rent alignment can be modeled on current pricing. Given the long recovery projection, entry timing is more favorable at stabilized price levels rather than sub-peak volatility windows.
From an operational standpoint for agents, market readiness will depend on strategic pricing, pre-inspection, functional layout marketing, and aggressive online positioning. Comparing Austin real estate movement against last year and typical seasonal activity shows slower engagement cycles and reduced urgency. With Activity Index trending toward contraction, the market is signaling final positioning rather than a rebound.
As for immediate listing activity, remember that today’s average seller requires upfront education. Buyers are not rejecting listings because they lack interest, but because they are curating options more carefully. Agents must now embed market data as part of listing strategies. It's not enough to be priced near comps; listings must clearly reflect the functional reason they are competitive.
In summary, Austin real estate continues trending toward a long-term rebalancing phase. The next growth cycle won’t begin until financing costs ease and absorption improves sustainably. Until then, market positioning is the key driver of success. Pricing in line with market, not against it, is what wins.
