May 28, 2025: National Market Index Update – HPI/CPI Holds at 1.03059

The National Market Index has released its latest update, with the Home Price Index Adjusted for Inflation (HPI/CPI) now at 1.030593 as of May 28, 2025. This revision offers a timely snapshot of U.S. housing market conditions, signaling ongoing stability as the nation navigates persistent inflation and elevated mortgage rates. As a leading indicator of inflation-adjusted home values, the HPI/CPI continues to serve as a critical metric for understanding national housing trends and long-term affordability.

Key Highlights of the May 2025 Update
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HPI/CPI at 1.03059: The current index value reflects a moderately elevated housing market, with March 2025 data showing home prices approximately 30.8% above the long-term average for that month. While down slightly from the May 2022 peak of 1.0412, the index indicates relative price stability despite economic tightening.

Historical Context: With over a century of data, the HPI/CPI charts the housing market’s performance through past recessions, booms, and corrections, offering a long-view perspective on home value trends and inflation cycles.

Comparative Correction Cycle: Thirty-four months into the current market correction, which began at the May 2022 peak of 1.0412, the drawdown stands at just -1.02%. This is minimal compared to the 35.23% peak-to-trough decline during the 2008 crisis, highlighting a far more resilient housing market in the current cycle.

Long-Term Appreciation: From a value of 0.8299 in January 2020 to 1.03059 in May 2025, the inflation-adjusted index has increased 24.2%, reinforcing the durability of real estate as a long-term asset class.

Market Trends and Insights

The latest HPI/CPI figures point to a housing market that has leveled out following rapid appreciation during the pandemic years. Monthly values (detailed on Page 6 of the report) trace a steady rise from 0.5939 in January 2000 to the current 1.03059. The month-over-month percentage changes (Page 8) have narrowed to a tighter band, reflecting more normalized volatility, unlike the pronounced shifts seen during the 2008 recession. Meanwhile, Page 10 illustrates the mild drawdown from the 2022 peak compared to the sharp decline from 2006 to 2012, now 34 months into both periods.

Implications for Stakeholders

Buyers: Current prices remain elevated, with the index still nearly one-third above the historical norm for spring months. Combined with higher borrowing costs, affordability remains a central concern.

Sellers: The market’s stability presents a favorable environment for listing, although regional demand patterns and buyer caution require well-informed pricing strategies.

Investors: With a 24.2% increase since 2020, the long-term trend continues to support real estate’s role as a reliable hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

Why This Data Matters

Unlike nominal home price indices, the HPI/CPI adjusts for inflation to provide a clear view of real purchasing power and affordability. By stripping out the noise of broader economic changes, this index—curated and published by Team Price Real Estate—serves as a vital benchmark for understanding macro-level housing dynamics. The May 2025 update confirms that while the market has cooled from its peak, it remains fundamentally sound and continues to outperform inflation.

Looking Ahead

With the HPI/CPI now at 1.03059, the national housing market remains stable and relatively strong. Stakeholders—whether buyers, sellers, or investors—are encouraged to track monthly updates and integrate local data to guide strategy and timing. The National Market Index will remain a trusted resource for interpreting real estate trends in a shifting economic environment.